Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 09:37Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the bull market in the non-ferrous metals industry will continue to advance, driven by a "new productivity bull market" rather than traditional real estate and infrastructure demands, with strong supply constraints and robust demand as core characteristics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry performed exceptionally well, with the CSI 300 index rising by 18.3% and the non-ferrous metals index increasing by 73.8%. Sub-sectors such as tungsten, rare earths, and copper saw significant gains, with individual stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth leading the charge [1][18]. - Prices for key metals surged, with cobalt prices up by 129%, tungsten by 110%, and gold and silver prices increasing by 49% and 53%, respectively [1][27]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen, with refined copper production growth from 2026 to 2028 projected to be lower than demand growth, leading to a sustained increase in copper prices [2][70]. - Aluminum supply remains tight, with overseas production becoming a key contributor, while demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and power grids is expected to support price increases [2][70]. - Gold is anticipated to maintain a long-term bullish trend due to increased central bank purchases and private investment demand amid a reshaping of the global financial order [2][70]. - Rare earths are positioned as strategic resources with significant value appreciation driven by export controls and growing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and humanoid robots [2][70]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and robotics in driving demand for new materials, including capacitors and inductors, which are expected to see significant growth [2][5]. - Strategic small metals like tungsten and antimony are entering an upward price channel due to supply constraints from export controls and quota reductions, alongside steady demand growth [2][5]. - Lithium prices are at a bottom, with the energy storage sector poised to drive a new growth cycle, while uranium is in a bull market due to inventory depletion and rising demand [2][5].