【南篱/黄金】临界点，黄金破位迹象何在

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with limited data available for analysis, particularly regarding retail sales and employment figures, which may impact future market movements [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales month-on-month data is considered important, while the PCE data is unlikely to be released due to the October government shutdown [2]. - The employment data for November will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting, adding to the uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - Predictions for the next three FOMC meetings indicate a 69.4% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% by December 11, 2025, with a decreasing likelihood of this rate in subsequent meetings [3]. - The fluctuating expectations for a rate cut in December have been between 30% and 60%, reflecting the market's uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with traders likely to be less active due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, which may limit market movements [3]. - The gold market is also experiencing a delicate balance, with multiple tests of support levels and a lack of strong downward momentum [4][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The key support level for gold is identified around 4030-4025, with potential downward movement if this level is breached [7]. - The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate important resistance around 4115-4120, which may affect trading strategies [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - The final week of November is expected to be unstable, with traders advised to monitor key levels closely [5][7]. - A simulation trading competition is set to begin on December 1, with the last week for registration [7].