2026全球市场展望：锚定AI主线，布局三大市场机遇

Group 1: Global Market Outlook for 2026 - The global GDP growth is projected to be only 2.4% in 2026, marking a near ten-year low, influenced by multiple cycles and policy factors [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy normalization is expected to maintain interest rates around 3%, leading to high-risk-free returns and impacting corporate profitability and stock valuations, particularly in financing-dependent sectors like technology and manufacturing [1] - China's economic recovery is crucial for global recovery, currently undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing employment and boosting consumer income through policies like tax cuts and interest rate reductions [2] Group 2: Challenges to Globalization - The global trade growth is anticipated to slow down to 0.8% in 2025, the lowest in nearly fourteen years, due to rising trade barriers and policy uncertainties, which may continue into 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI - The AI wave is seen as a long-term growth driver that transcends economic cycles, representing a significant opportunity for investment [4] - Different markets present varied investment strategies; A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq require tailored approaches to capture opportunities effectively [5] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - A-shares offer long-term investment value, with high-quality, stable earnings potential in sectors like high-end manufacturing and essential consumer goods, despite high valuations in the AI sector [6] - The potential for recovery in consumer sectors is supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [6] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by lower valuations in AI-related companies compared to their A-share counterparts, making it an attractive investment area [7] - The AI industry is viewed as a growth engine for investment portfolios in the coming years [7] Group 6: Nasdaq Market Insights - Nasdaq is home to many leading AI companies, and historical trends suggest that the next AI leader will likely emerge from this market [8] - Investing in Nasdaq index products is recommended to capitalize on the potential growth from the AI revolution [8] Group 7: Gold as a Hedge - Gold has performed well in the past two years, but excessive reliance on its past performance for future gains is cautioned against, as all investments experience cycles [9] Group 8: Conclusion on Investment Strategy - The overarching theme for 2026 is to seek certainty amid uncertainty, with a focus on AI as a primary investment theme, complemented by strategic allocations in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq, along with a measured approach to gold for risk hedging [10]