12月降息概率超9成，黄金大涨

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have shifted their stance regarding interest rate cuts in December, with market predictions for a rate cut probability exceeding 90% [1] - The core reason for this shift is the increasing risk of a weak labor market, as evidenced by the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021, and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls [1] - The San Francisco Fed President Daly warned of a fragile balance in the labor market, indicating that if companies accelerate layoffs due to underperformance, the employment situation could deteriorate rapidly [1] Group 2 - Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, providing the Federal Reserve with more policy space to consider rate cuts [2] - As of September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 3.0% year-on-year, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained around 2.8%, still above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The analysis from the New York Fed President Williams suggests that tariffs contribute only about 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to CPI, with no signs of second-round effects, and he anticipates inflation returning to target levels by 2027 [2] Group 3 - The increased probability of rate cuts is favorable for gold prices, with gold futures closing up 1.48% at 946.5 yuan per gram [3]