Gold - Recent geopolitical developments suggest potential progress in Ukraine negotiations, which may lead to a de-escalation of the conflict [1] - U.S. retail sales for September are expected to grow by 0.4%, indicating a slight decline in consumer spending compared to the previous month's 0.6% growth [1] - Analysts predict that due to rising unemployment and expectations of peak consumer spending, the market is betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could boost gold prices [1] - Technical analysis shows a recent price rebound, with support at $4,114 and potential for further gains [1] Oil - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 419, indicating sustained high levels of oil production [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana are also seeing record high oil exports [2] - Demand for oil remains weak, with seasonal declines and insufficient support for refined oil products [2] - Optimistic signals regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine may reduce risk premiums in the oil market, which is already facing oversupply risks [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with resistance at $60 and support at $57 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has shifted, with increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [3] - Current market data shows an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from below 40% previously [3] - The dollar index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with potential risks of a pullback [3] - Technical analysis indicates a possible double top formation, with support at 99.89 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently in a weak adjustment phase, having broken below the 20-day moving average [4] - There are concerns about further declines, with resistance at 48,958 [4] Copper - Copper prices have retreated in the context of a strengthening dollar [6] - The price is testing the 62-day moving average, with a potential for further declines if it breaks below this level [6] - Key support is at $4.96 and resistance at $5.09 [6] Market Overview - Saudi Aramco is considering its largest asset sale to raise billions of dollars [7] - A significant rocket launch occurred with the Shenzhou-22 mission [7] - Bank of America forecasts gold prices could reach $5,000 by 2026, while also raising price predictions for copper, aluminum, silver, and platinum [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Key U.S. economic data releases include September retail sales, PPI, and consumer confidence index [8]
智昇黄金原油分析：降息预期反转 金价重拾涨势
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 10:05