Mhy20251125生猪晚评:减产已开启,能否加速进行?

Market Overview - As of November 21, the profit from self-bred pigs is a loss of 135.90 CNY per head, compared to a loss of 114.81 CNY the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets is a loss of 234.63 CNY per head, up from a loss of 205.64 CNY the previous week [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 18-19, indicating that the livestock industry has maintained steady development this year, with the total number of breeding sows falling below 40 million heads by the end of October [1] - The national pig price as of November 19 is 12.24 CNY per kilogram, down 1.61% from November 12, while the corn price has increased by 0.88% to 2.28 CNY per kilogram [1] Daily Market Prices - The average price of pigs in various provinces shows a downward trend, with prices in regions like Heilongjiang at 11.35 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from the previous day, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.44% [1] - The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.37, a decrease of 2.36% from November 12 [1] Industry Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has rapidly decreased to 39.90 million heads, leading to a divergence in market opinions regarding capacity reduction. Some advocate for accelerated capacity reduction to prevent further losses, while others with strong financial backing may seek to capitalize on the exit of smaller producers [2] - There are concerns that some companies may have inflated their actual breeding stock numbers to qualify for subsidies [2]