人民币持续超越欧元成全球第二！去美元化还需多久？现在有了答案

Core Insights - The Chinese yuan has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency, indicating a shift away from the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and finance [1][9][11] - The rise of the yuan is driven by its ability to meet the global demand for a reliable currency, providing security, stability, and convenience in transactions [3][5][7] Group 1: Yuan's Competitive Advantages - The yuan's ascent is attributed to its ability to address key pain points in global trade, such as high costs, significant risks, and dependency on third-party systems [18][25] - Direct settlement in yuan can save businesses 1%-3% in exchange costs, enhancing profit margins significantly [20][25] - The yuan's non-hegemonic nature allows countries to avoid the risks associated with US dollar dominance, such as financial sanctions and asset freezes [22][25] Group 2: Decline of Dollar Dominance - The decline of the dollar's status is not due to the yuan "stealing" its position, but rather the erosion of trust in the dollar as the US continues to print money to manage its debt [9][11][16] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to a 30-year low of 56.32%, reflecting a collective judgment by central banks that holding too much dollar-denominated assets poses greater risks than rewards [11][16] - Traditional US allies are also reducing their holdings of US debt, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar's reliability [16] Group 3: Challenges to Yuan's Global Acceptance - For the yuan to become a mainstream global currency, it must overcome challenges such as the need for a more open financial market and a diverse range of financial products [29][31] - The yuan's status as a safe-haven currency needs to be strengthened, especially during global economic turmoil [33] - A shift in global perception towards "non-hegemonic currencies" will take time, as countries adapt to a multi-currency system [35] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next 3-5 years are critical for the yuan to solidify its position in key sectors like energy and manufacturing, with an expected increase in its settlement ratio [37][39] - Over the next 5-10 years, the yuan's share in global foreign exchange reserves could rise to over 20%, enhancing its influence in international financial rules and commodity pricing [41] - The long-term vision includes a multi-currency system where the yuan, dollar, and euro coexist, with the yuan's role supported by economic strength and trust rather than hegemony [45][47]