美联储12月降息预期大涨 2026年金价环境仍较为友好

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have recently released dovish signals, significantly boosting rate cut expectations, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] - Gold prices are expected to show strong resilience around the $4000 per ounce mark, as the market has fully priced in the delayed rate cut timing [1] - The recent strong non-farm employment data and persistent inflation indicators have temporarily suppressed the market's certainty regarding the Fed's December rate cut [1] Group 2 - The macro environment is expected to remain favorable for gold prices through 2026, driven by U.S. tax cuts and rate cuts, leading to a new round of global easing [2] - The valuation of A-share gold stocks has recovered to around 15 times PE, indicating good investment value despite not following gold price increases above $4000 per ounce [2] - The potential for economic turmoil in 2026, coupled with the ongoing debate about AI's impact on the economy, suggests that gold's hedging value will continue to be significant [2]