在浅流动性里寻找真趋势——迈向2026年的多资产思维

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global liquidity, characterized as "shallow liquidity," and its impact on various asset classes, highlighting the volatility and the need for strategic asset allocation in a complex macroeconomic environment [2][7]. Market Trends - In 2025, significant asset price movements were observed, with silver and gold prices increasing by 70% and over 50% respectively, while major stock indices showed mixed performance [3]. - The market is experiencing a "shallow liquidity" scenario where minor adjustments in positions can lead to substantial fluctuations across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities [3][7]. Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts that complexity will dominate the market, driven by AI innovations, central bank policy divergence, and geopolitical restructuring, suggesting a need for diversified asset allocation [5][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-asset, multi-region, and multi-strategy configurations to navigate the evolving investment landscape [15]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market has seen a shift from high-volatility AI hardware and industrial stocks to defensive sectors, indicating a reallocation of funds in response to global deleveraging and interest rate adjustments [4][16]. - The outlook for gold and precious metals remains strong as they serve as a hedge against economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, suggesting their role in long-term asset allocation [17]. Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income market is transitioning from a uniform duration strategy to a more nuanced approach, focusing on credit differentiation and duration management in response to global inflation and growth disparities [13]. - Analysts recommend a focus on high-grade bonds and emerging market debt to enhance portfolio resilience and yield stability [18].