罗志恒：“供给配不配、时间够不够”，把居民消费率从40%推向更高水平

Core Viewpoint - The increase of the resident consumption rate is a key goal in China's economic and social development, aiming to elevate it from the current 40% to a higher level, which is crucial for domestic circulation and transforming China from a "world factory" to a "world market" [1] Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Analysis - China's current resident consumption rate is relatively low, at 39.6% in 2024, which is 28 percentage points lower than the United States, and 30 percentage points lower than its peak in the 1970s [3] - The service consumption ratio in China is significantly lower than that of the United States, with only 46% of resident consumption being service-related, compared to higher averages in similarly developed countries [3][4] Group 2: Factors Limiting Consumption Rate Improvement - The limited consumption capacity of residents is a major constraint, with only 60% of national income distribution going to residents, compared to 75%-80% in developed countries [5] - The disparity in social security systems, particularly in pension coverage between urban and rural residents, leads to cautious consumer behavior among lower-income groups [5] - The slow urbanization process restricts household consumption potential, as many migrant workers are unable to relocate their families, limiting demand for services and large consumer goods [6] Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing Consumption - Reforming the fiscal and tax system is essential, shifting from production-based to consumption-based tax sharing to encourage local governments to promote consumption [7] - Increasing residents' financial income through stabilizing the real estate and capital markets, and improving pension benefits for urban and rural residents is necessary to enhance consumption capacity [7] - Accelerating the urbanization of migrant workers and addressing welfare provision based on the household registration system is crucial for boosting consumption [7] - Optimizing time allocation by increasing public holidays and improving the holiday adjustment system can also enhance consumer spending [8]