角逐AI算力：中国12英寸硅片2030年产能翻倍在即

Core Insights - The competition between China and the US in the semiconductor and computing power sectors is intensifying, driven by the rapid development of generative AI technology [1][3] - The demand for 12-inch (300mm) wafers is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 7-10% from 2025 to 2030 globally [3][4] - By 2030, China's semiconductor revenue is anticipated to exceed $1 trillion, with AI chips playing an increasingly important role [3] Industry Trends - The 12-inch wafer has become the mainstream trend in the high-end wafer market, with China aiming for a comprehensive breakthrough in wafer capacity and technology by 2030 [1][4] - China's domestic production capacity for 300mm wafers is expected to double from 2025 to 2030, adding approximately 240,000 wafers per month, primarily for AI training chips and high-performance memory [4][6] - The market share of 12-inch wafers in China's AI chip sector is projected to reach 62.6% by 2024, continuing to rise towards 2030, while the demand for 8-inch wafers in high-end applications will decline to below 10% [4][6] Market Dynamics - Major domestic 12-inch wafer manufacturers in China include Zhonghuan, Beijing E-Town, Shanghai Advanced, and Hangzhou Semiconductor, but they currently rely heavily on imports, accounting for only 4-5% of the global 12-inch market [5][6] - The Chinese government invests $40-50 billion annually in semiconductors, promoting the domestic replacement of next-generation AI chips and advanced materials [6][7] - The shift from 8-inch to 12-inch wafer production is driven by the need for higher density and performance in applications such as HBM storage and TPU accelerators [6][7] Future Outlook - By 2030, China's generative AI industry will heavily depend on local 12-inch wafer production, while 8-inch wafers will primarily serve low-end and non-AI markets [7] - Key focus areas for China's semiconductor industry will include wafer material technology, capacity upgrades, and supply chain security, positioning these as new competitive advantages on the international stage [7]