GTC泽汇：黄金短线波动加剧与潜在回调布局期

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4,100 per ounce, showing strong resilience despite a potential downward adjustment in the coming months [1][3] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by Federal Reserve policy, with a 79% probability of a rate cut next month, although opinions among research institutions vary [3] - Inflation trends and holiday consumer spending are key variables affecting market expectations, with holiday shopping projected to reach $1 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [3] Structural Risks and Long-term Outlook - Increased investment demand has led to concerns about market volatility due to new entrants lacking experience in a complete gold bear market [4] - Historical patterns indicate that gold price adjustments can be sharper and deeper than expected, with potential for significant short-term fluctuations if crowded trades are unwound [4] - Despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold remains solid, with a 15% price adjustment still maintaining key support levels [4]