明年市场的核心逻辑：中国再通胀的需求动力从哪来？

Core Viewpoint - The core logic for China's economy and capital markets in the coming year is "re-inflation," driven not by internal stimulus but by stable export growth offsetting declines in real estate investment [1][2]. Group 1: Re-inflation as a Key Theme - "Re-inflation" is identified as the key narrative for understanding China's economy and capital markets in the next year, especially after facing price weakness since Q2 2023 [2]. - If the price situation can be reversed next year, the current strong performance of the stock market and weaker performance of the bond market will likely continue [2]. Group 2: Demand-Side Concerns - There are concerns regarding the demand side, as relying solely on supply-side reforms like "anti-involution" without corresponding demand-side policies may lead to unsustainable price recovery [2]. - Despite the lack of specific demand policies accompanying "anti-involution," the report suggests that total demand will still have support for expansion [2]. Group 3: Export's Role in Offsetting Real Estate Investment Decline - Real estate investment is currently a major drag on total demand, with a projected decline of around 15% this year, marking three consecutive years of negative growth [3]. - Export growth has been a key mechanism to offset the demand gap created by declining real estate investment, with a net demand increase of 9044.46 billion yuan in 2022 due to stable export growth [3]. - For 2024, the combined change in export and real estate investment is expected to further increase to 13089.09 billion yuan, enhancing the offsetting effect of exports [3]. Group 4: Future Export Projections - The forecast for actual real estate investment in 2024 is around 6 trillion yuan, while exports are expected to rise to approximately 28.59 trillion yuan, resulting in a continued offsetting effect exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4]. - Even under a pessimistic scenario where real estate investment declines by 20%, a mere 3.1% growth in exports would suffice to counterbalance the demand gap [4]. - The report anticipates a potential "China-US policy resonance" by 2026, which could further support export growth through expanded global trade demand [4]. - The conclusion emphasizes that as long as exports remain stable, total demand in China will not contract, supporting the likelihood of re-inflation alongside supply-side constraints [4].