支付机构备付金规模连续回升，后续如何波动

Core Insights - The payment industry is experiencing a recovery, as indicated by the increase in non-financial institution deposits, which reached 25,543.89 billion yuan as of October 2025, up by 82.78 billion yuan from September 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Payment Industry Trends - The increase in deposits reflects the transaction volume of payment institutions, with the scale of reserve funds growing for three consecutive months, driven by events like "Double 11" and the deepening of ecosystems by major platforms like WeChat and Alipay [2][3] - The overall reserve fund has shown a fluctuating growth trend, primarily around 25 trillion yuan, with peaks typically occurring in the fourth quarter and notable increases in January and April-May [2][3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The People's Bank of China has revoked a total of 107 payment licenses this year, including 11 in the current year, indicating a consolidation in the market, particularly among prepaid card institutions [3][4] - Compliance with reserve fund management regulations is critical, as evidenced by penalties imposed on institutions for violations, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to the 100% centralized deposit requirement [4]