商务部研究院：即时零售冲刺万亿级规模 年轻客群撑起增长大旗

Core Insights - The instant retail industry in China is at a critical juncture, poised to reach a trillion-yuan scale, driven by simultaneous expansion and innovation in business models [1] Market Growth - The instant retail market in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, significantly outpacing the growth rates of national online retail and total social consumer goods retail [1] - By 2025, the market size is expected to reach 971.4 billion yuan, surpassing 1 trillion yuan by 2026, and potentially reaching 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 12.6% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Demand Characteristics - The demand side is characterized by three main trends: youthfulness, immediacy, and health consciousness. In 2024, the age group of 31-45 years will account for 55% of consumers, a 5% increase from 2023 [5] - As of March 2025, over two-thirds of users on Meituan's instant delivery platform are from the post-90s generation, while over 60% of users on Taobao's instant delivery platform are aged 25-40 by July 2025 [5] - 51.5% of users expect rapid delivery innovations, with 55% of beauty and personal care purchases being for social gatherings and 52.7% for emergency gifts, requiring fulfillment within 30 minutes [5] - Approximately 80% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for health-oriented products, with 70.7% considering zero-additive products more reliable [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Front warehouses are a key supply chain component, contributing over 50% of transaction volume, with increasing density since 2024, covering a 3-kilometer radius in first- and second-tier cities [5] - Platform-based front warehouses account for nearly 60%, with Meituan planning to exceed 100,000 lightning warehouses by 2027, while self-operated front warehouses represent over 40% [5] Quality Assurance and Service Evolution - By the end of 2024, Meituan's instant delivery service will have partnered with over 5,600 large chain retailers and 570 brand merchants, while Taobao's instant delivery service saw a 110% increase in new brand entries by July 2025 [6] - Instant retail is evolving from mere product transactions to comprehensive life service offerings, focusing on speed, reliability, scenario adaptation, and supply chain collaboration rather than just price competition [6] - Future developments in instant retail will feature comprehensive coverage, multi-scenario applications, AI-driven fulfillment, integration of goods and services, and a focus on green and low-carbon practices [6]