大量制造业企业撤出中国，迁往东南亚，为什么不搬去我国中西部？

Core Insights - The acceleration of global value chain adjustments and the evolving Sino-U.S. trade relations are prompting companies to diversify production layouts to mitigate potential tariff and supply chain disruption risks [2] - By the first half of 2025, the U.S. will expand tariffs on solar and electronic products from China, leading to a 15% increase in Southeast Asian exports, with Vietnam's electronic exports rising by 18% year-on-year [2] Group 1: Regional Trade and Manufacturing Shifts - Under the RCEP framework, intermediate goods trade within the region accounts for 66%, with labor costs in Eastern China exceeding 4,000 yuan per month, and tightening environmental regulations creating space for high-end manufacturing [2] - The transfer of solar and mobile assembly to Southeast Asia is evident, with China's intermediate goods exports to Vietnam reaching $101.4 billion in the first seven months of 2025, accounting for 40% of Vietnam's total imports [2] - Vietnam's manufacturing export growth is projected to reach 18% by 2025, with local production of Xiaomi and OPPO covering 35% of Southeast Asian sales and employing over 50,000 local workers [6][13] Group 2: Labor and Infrastructure Considerations - Southeast Asia's labor resources are abundant, with 55% of Vietnam's population under 35 years old and monthly wages ranging from 1,800 to 2,200 yuan, suitable for electronic assembly and textile processing [4] - The logistics network in Vietnam has improved, reducing transport time between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City by 20%, facilitating quicker integration into ASEAN and Western markets [4] - In contrast, while the Midwest region has a high-skilled labor force with over 80% training coverage, initial investments are higher due to the need for cross-province coordination [7] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The solar industry is experiencing a shift, with China holding 80% of global solar capacity, but assembly processes moving to Southeast Asia, where Vietnam's capacity share is expected to reach 10% by 2025 [9] - Localized production in Southeast Asia has reached 60%, with Vietnam's solar exports growing by 25% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from the RCEP zero-tariff framework [11] - The Midwest's high worker education levels and training systems are offset by supply chain incompleteness, leading to a 10% increase in initial investment costs [11] Group 4: Policy and Investment Environment - Southeast Asia's "one-stop" approval process has attracted $23.5 billion in foreign investment, a 30% increase, while the Midwest faces longer approval times for environmental assessments [20] - The infrastructure matching degree is critical for success, with Eastern industrial clusters forming closed loops, while the Midwest's historical lag in infrastructure development results in higher logistics costs [22] - By 2025, the GDP growth rate in the Midwest is projected at 5.5%, with industrial added value at 6.1%, indicating a shift from passive acceptance to strategic layout [18]