迎接“十五五” 投资新时代 资本市场如何助力居民消费率提升

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, which is crucial for macroeconomic regulation and high-quality economic development [2][4]. Economic Goals - The plan emphasizes achieving high-quality development with notable improvements in economic growth, total factor productivity, and a sustained increase in the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth [2][4]. - The target is for the resident consumption rate to rise, requiring consumption growth to outpace overall economic growth [2][4]. Mechanisms for Improvement - The plan suggests enhancing the proportion of resident consumption in relation to resident income or increasing the share of resident income in GDP as pathways to boost the consumption rate [2][4]. - Key strategies include optimizing income distribution, expanding the middle-income group, and improving social security systems to enhance consumer confidence and spending [9][8]. Role of Capital Markets - Capital markets are expected to play a more active role in increasing the resident consumption rate by improving wealth effects and enhancing residents' income expectations [3][14]. - The low proportion of property income among Chinese residents is identified as a barrier to consumption, with recommendations to stabilize the stock market and broaden income channels [14][15]. Historical Context and Comparisons - The document draws parallels with the U.S. experience, where structural changes and retirement accounts significantly boosted consumer spending and income expectations [15]. - It highlights that during bull markets, consumer spending growth rates are higher compared to bear markets, indicating a correlation between stock market performance and consumption [15][16]. Policy Recommendations - Suggestions include enhancing dividend and buyback policies, improving risk management tools, and encouraging long-term investments to stabilize the stock market [16]. - The plan advocates for increasing the coverage of enterprise annuities and optimizing financial product offerings to improve residents' equity allocation [16].