国际油价“跌跌不休”，机构拉响油价腰斩警报

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical developments, particularly the renewed hope for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, have led to a significant decline in international oil prices, with Brent crude trading around $62 per barrel and U.S. crude around $58 per barrel [1][2] - The oil market is facing a structural oversupply, with OPEC predicting a slight oversupply in the oil market next year, contrasting previous forecasts that indicated a prolonged supply deficit [3][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. oil production, indicating that global oil inventories will continue to rise, putting further pressure on oil prices [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts express a pessimistic outlook for future oil prices, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Brent crude could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 and potentially drop to the low $30s by the end of 2027 due to oversupply [5][6] - OPEC+ faces internal challenges in coordinating production cuts, as some member countries have exceeded their production quotas, leading to tensions within the organization [5][6] - The U.S. shale oil industry is showing resilience due to technological advancements, which poses a challenge to OPEC+ as competition for market share intensifies [6]