21专访｜瑞银胡俊礼：中国科技板块估值合理，看好四个细分赛道

Core Insights - Wealth management institutions need to reassess traditional strategies and explore new asset allocation approaches in the context of a global low-interest-rate environment [1] - AI-driven innovation is expected to be a significant driver for global stock markets in the coming year, despite concerns over high valuations in AI concept stocks [4] Group 1: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - UBS's CIO for Asia, Hu Junli, highlights three main concerns for international asset management institutions: global policy uncertainty, debt risks in developed economies, and international tech competition [2][9] - The correlation between Chinese assets and overseas assets has been declining since 2025, driven by ample liquidity and accelerated technological innovation [3] - The Chinese technology sector is viewed as the most attractive investment opportunity due to its reasonable valuations and strong profit growth potential [7][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - UBS is optimistic about offshore Chinese stocks, high-yield domestic Chinese stocks, and markets in Singapore, India, and Indonesia [5][6] - The Asian credit bond market is expected to benefit from strong economic growth, with projected returns of 5%-6% by 2026 [6] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector's earnings are projected to grow by 37% by 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing stock sectors globally [7][12] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for major tech companies is around 30 times, significantly lower than the over 80 times seen during the 1999 internet bubble [4] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The RMB is expected to strengthen against the USD by 2025, influenced by external environment improvements and strong domestic forex deposits [10] - The influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors, has reached record highs, with net inflows exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [10]