住建部定调楼市未来：第四次拐点浮现，房产新周期即将开启

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is at a historical turning point, with a new cycle about to begin, driven by profound changes in supply-demand relationships, policy restructuring, and gradual market confidence recovery [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - The core feature of 2025 real estate regulation is "systematic efforts and precise measures," with a policy framework consisting of "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" [2] - The "four cancellations" break long-standing barriers to market circulation, allowing cities to have greater control over their real estate policies, which has led to increased viewing and transaction volumes since late September [2] - The "four reductions" target cost issues for homebuyers, including a 0.25 percentage point decrease in housing provident fund rates and a unified minimum down payment of 15%, expected to save residents 150 billion yuan in interest [2] - The "two increases" involve the addition of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovation projects and expanding the credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan, addressing both inventory and financing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Data - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a positive trend in the market, with a structural narrowing of price declines in major cities and signs of price stabilization in core cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [4] - From January to October 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 71.982 million square meters, with a decrease in unsold housing inventory, indicating ongoing destocking [4] - Residential investment from January to October was 565.95 billion yuan, showing a 13.8% year-on-year decline, but the completion area of housing projects increased by 22%, indicating a shift towards quality improvement [4] Group 3: Supply Innovation - The introduction of "good housing" standards marks a fundamental shift in real estate development logic, focusing on quality rather than quantity, encompassing green health, low carbon, smart convenience, and safety [5] - The government is actively promoting the revitalization of existing assets, allowing local governments greater autonomy in managing and repurposing properties, which has led to significant progress in activating idle assets [5] - Financing structures for leading real estate companies are improving, with financing costs decreasing and the proportion of equity financing rising from 12% in 2022 to 28% [5] Group 4: Housing Security - The construction of affordable housing is entering a phase of large-scale promotion, becoming a crucial support for stabilizing the market and benefiting the public [6] - Local governments are actively implementing plans for affordable housing, with cities like Beijing and Guangzhou advancing projects to meet housing needs [6] - The ongoing expansion of affordable housing is expected to complement the commercial housing market, contributing to a new housing supply structure that includes both rental and purchase options [6] Group 5: Overall Market Transformation - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing profound structural changes, with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's precise measures successfully curbing market decline and promoting a transition to high-quality development [7] - The comprehensive promotion of "good housing," revitalization of existing assets, and continuous improvement of the housing security system are expected to create a new pattern of "steady progress and differentiated development" in the real estate market [7]