美股的敌人才不是AI泡沫，更要警惕流动性危机

Core Viewpoints - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market are primarily driven by liquidity issues, with the federal government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's indecision being the root causes [2][5][6] - The argument for an AI bubble is based on two premises: fundamental cracks and liquidity constraints, but the market is not yet at a bubble stage [2][11] - Discussions about an AI bubble should ideally begin around mid-2026 [2][19] Market Downturn - The recent downturn in the US stock market is not a result of an AI bubble but rather a liquidity crisis, characterized by a "double whammy" of falling stock and bond prices [4][10] - The liquidity crisis is attributed to the federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2023, due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill [5][6] - Following the government shutdown, the Treasury's general account balance increased significantly, leading to a decline in bond market value and contributing to the stock market's downturn [8] AI Bubble Discussion - The AI sector's capital expenditure has surpassed that of the internet bubble era, but the quality of revenue and profitability of current leading companies is significantly better [14][18] - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is only slightly above 18%, compared to over 33% during the internet bubble, indicating that the current situation does not suggest an imminent bubble [18] - The current monetary environment is not tightening but is expected to remain accommodative, contrasting with the conditions leading to the internet bubble's collapse [18] Future Indicators - Key indicators to monitor for potential risks include the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies; a recovery in these prices would suggest improved liquidity [19] - If a new Federal Reserve chair adopts aggressive rate cuts, it could stimulate inflation and raise concerns about liquidity issues in the latter half of 2026 [19]