美国9月零售销售环比增0.2%，大幅低于预期，汽车销售成主要拖累

Core Insights - US retail sales in September grew by only 0.2% month-on-month, falling short of the 0.4% market expectation and significantly down from the 0.6% growth in August [1][5] - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline increased by just 0.1%, well below the expected 0.3%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [1][5] - The data release was delayed due to a 43-day federal government shutdown, originally scheduled for mid-October [1] Sales Performance - The retail sales data showed a slowdown, with only 8 out of 13 retail categories experiencing growth, primarily driven by gas stations, personal care stores, and miscellaneous retailers [3] - Automobile sales declined for the first time in four months, with weakness observed in discretionary spending categories such as electronics, clothing, and sporting goods [3][5] - The expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit at the end of September has negatively impacted automobile sales [3] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Concerns - Despite a year-on-year increase in real retail sales for 12 consecutive months, core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, with significant declines in unadjusted retail sales [5] - The current consumer spending pattern reflects a "K-shaped" divergence, where high-income households continue to spend due to a strong stock market, while middle and low-income consumers face multiple pressures [7] - Rising prices, partly due to import tariffs, and a weakening labor market have contributed to cautious consumer sentiment, with the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high of 4.4% [7] - Economists express concern that ongoing stock market sell-offs could lead high-income households to tighten their spending, potentially dragging down economic growth [7]