产能“真相”成焦点！OPEC+本周末讨论长期配额 全球原油供应过剩迹象增多

Core Insights - OPEC+ is facing challenges in clarifying the actual production capacities of its member countries as they prepare for a meeting this weekend [1][2] - A new assessment of "maximum sustainable capacity" was initiated in May to set production quotas for 2027, highlighting the need for accurate capacity evaluations [1] - The necessity for this assessment has increased due to some member countries struggling to meet production agreements, indicating they may be nearing their production limits [1] Group 1 - The assessment work may face significant challenges in 2026 as global oil supply surplus signs increase, with oil prices recently dropping to around $60 per barrel [1] - JPMorgan warned that OPEC+ may need to implement new production cuts next year to prevent oil prices from falling into the $40 range [1] - The capacity evaluation could lead to internal friction among member countries, with some seeking to increase their capacity estimates while others may be reluctant to acknowledge lower actual capacities [1] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia retains significant capacity for production increases, while other members like the UAE and Iraq are actively seeking to expand their capacities [2] - Russia remains constrained by Western sanctions, complicating the overall production landscape within OPEC+ [2] - The upcoming online meetings will review oil market conditions and allow key members to assess production policies for early 2026, although no significant changes are expected [2] Group 3 - Eight member countries decided to pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year to avoid exacerbating market pressures amid signs of global supply surplus [2] - RBC Capital Markets suggests that OPEC+ is unlikely to adjust its policies until geopolitical uncertainties become clearer [2] - The global supply situation is influenced by U.S. sanctions on Russia and a tougher international stance on Venezuela [2]