罗志恒：“供给配不配、时间够不够” “十五五”居民消费率提升新动能

Core Viewpoint - The increase in the resident consumption rate is a significant goal in China's economic and social development, aiming to elevate it from the current 40% to a higher level, which is crucial for both domestic circulation and China's role in global economic governance [1] Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Analysis - China's current resident consumption rate of approximately 40% is notably lower than the United States by 28 percentage points and also lower than its own peak in the 1970s by 30 percentage points [2] - The service consumption ratio in China is significantly lower, with only 46% of resident consumption attributed to services in 2024, compared to higher averages in similarly developed countries [2] Group 2: Constraints on Consumption Rate Improvement - Systemic constraints on consumption include limited consumer capacity due to income distribution, where only about 60% of national income is allocated to residents, compared to 75%-80% in developed countries [3] - The real estate market's downturn has led to a "money but not spending" mentality among residents, further suppressing market vitality [3] - There is a mismatch in the consumption market, characterized by an oversupply of goods and a shortage of high-end services, which hampers the conversion of potential demand into actual consumption [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing Consumption - Fiscal and tax reforms are essential, with a shift from production-based to consumption-based tax sharing to encourage local governments to promote consumption growth [5] - Increasing direct subsidies to residents and expanding free early childhood education are recommended to address current demand deficiencies [5] - Stabilizing the real estate and capital markets is crucial for enhancing residents' financial income and overall consumption capacity [5]