Novo Nordisk Alzheimer's Miss Disappointing But Not Material, Analyst Says

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's stock declined following the release of topline results from phase 3 trials for semaglutide in early-stage symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, which did not demonstrate superiority over placebo in reducing disease progression [1][2] Group 1: Trial Results - The phase 3 trials (evoke and evoke+) failed to confirm the effectiveness of semaglutide in reducing the progression of Alzheimer's disease, as measured by the Clinical Dementia Rating – Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score compared to baseline [1] - The decision to explore an Alzheimer's indication for semaglutide was based on real-world evidence, preclinical models, and post-hoc analyses from diabetes and obesity trials [2] Group 2: Analyst Reactions - Goldman Sachs noted that expectations for the trial were low, forecasting only a 5% probability of approximately $4 billion in peak sales for semaglutide in Alzheimer's disease, indicating that the trial miss is disappointing but not significantly impactful [3] - Analyst James Quigly highlighted investor concerns regarding broader downside risks to Novo Nordisk's medium-term growth trajectory, suggesting that consensus estimates have already begun to adjust downward in light of recent discussions about headwinds [4] Group 3: Ratings Updates - BMO Capital Markets maintained a Market Perform rating but reduced its price forecast for Novo Nordisk from $50 to $46, reflecting a more cautious outlook following the trial data [5] - HSBC downgraded Novo Nordisk from Buy to Hold, indicating a shift to a more conservative stance on the stock [5] - Following these developments, Novo Nordisk's stock was trading at $46.83, up 4.14% at the last check [5]