美联储理事米兰：需要大幅降息，当前货币政策阻碍经济发展，并将失业率逐步推高

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. labor market, arguing that current monetary policy is too tight and is driving up unemployment rates [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Miran directly attributes the rising unemployment rate to overly tight monetary policy, noting that the unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [2]. - He warns that without continued rapid interest rate cuts, monetary policy will "stifle all positive developments," hindering the labor market's recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Perspectives - Miran expresses optimism regarding inflation, suggesting that the current high inflation levels are largely a statistical illusion, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances in the housing market and the lagging effects of monetary policy [4][5]. - He believes that since there is no substantial inflation issue, the Federal Reserve should quickly lower interest rates to neutral levels, emphasizing the urgent need for relief in the U.S. housing market [5]. Group 3: Financial Conditions and Asset Management - Miran refutes the notion that financial conditions are loose based on stock market performance, asserting that housing is the key channel through which financial conditions affect the real economy, and that mortgage and housing market conditions remain very tight [6]. - He advocates for a more conservative approach to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet management, suggesting an increase in short-term Treasury holdings while reducing exposure to mortgages, medium-term notes, and long-term bonds [6][7]. - Miran's statements provide a new voice for the dovish faction within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is currently divided on whether to further cut rates in December amid a weak labor market and ongoing inflation pressures [7].