止跌企稳后，中国房地产：下一步怎么走？

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from rapid growth to a period of adjustment and transformation, focusing on "stock deepening" rather than "incremental expansion" due to high inventory pressure and the rise of the existing market [1][3] Market Conditions - The current market adjustment is ongoing, with inventory reduction remaining a core challenge; as of March 2025, 41% of cities have a commodity housing de-stocking cycle exceeding 18 months, indicating persistent inventory pressure [3] - By June 2025, the narrow inventory of new residential properties in 50 cities is projected to reach 309 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.82 months [3] - Policy benefits released in September 2024 have been absorbed by the market, with the National Bureau of Statistics stating that the real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment and transformation [3] Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that new home sales in China will shrink by 40% over the next decade due to urbanization slowdown, stock replacement, and demographic changes, indicating the end of the "bull market" logic [3][5] - The rise of the existing market is supported by data, with domestic second-hand housing transaction area expected to grow by 5% to 630 million square meters in 2025, capturing 46% of the market share [5] Market Dynamics - By 2035, second-hand housing sales are forecasted to reach 800-900 million square meters, equivalent to the total new home sales in 2024, activating a new value chain in sectors like renovation and community operations [5] - The "Matthew Effect" in the industry will intensify, with the market share of the top ten developers expected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 50% in 2025, and up to 60% in first and second-tier cities [5] Investment Opportunities - Investment logic is being restructured, with urban differentiation becoming a key feature; only major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and strong second-tier cities such as Hangzhou and Suzhou are seen as viable investment areas [7] - Three major transformation opportunities for real estate finance professionals include focusing on second-hand housing transaction services in core cities, engaging in stock housing renovation and community services, and monitoring quality projects and bonds from leading developers to mitigate risks associated with smaller firms [7]