美联储理事米兰：需要大幅降息，当前货币政策阻碍经济发展

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. labor market, arguing that current monetary policy is too tight and is contributing to rising unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Miran directly attributes the rising unemployment rate to overly tight monetary policy, stating that the increase in unemployment is a direct result of this [2]. - Recent data shows that the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, highlighting the urgency for the Fed to act quickly to avoid stifling economic recovery [3]. - Miran warns that without continued rapid interest rate cuts, monetary policy will "choke off all positive developments," preventing the labor market from recovering as needed [3][4]. Group 2: Inflation Perspectives - Miran expresses a notably optimistic view on inflation, suggesting that the current high inflation levels are largely a statistical illusion [5][6]. - He explains that most inflationary pressures are due to imbalances in the housing market and the lagging effects of monetary policy, which supports his argument for aggressive rate cuts [6]. - Miran emphasizes the need to lower mortgage rates to alleviate pressures in the housing market, asserting that housing is the key conduit through which financial conditions affect the real economy [6]. Group 3: Asset and Liability Management - Miran advocates for a more conservative approach to the Fed's balance sheet management, suggesting an increase in short-term Treasury holdings while reducing exposure to mortgages, medium-term notes, and long-term bonds [7][8]. - This stance indicates a preference for less direct intervention in specific markets, encouraging the Fed to adopt a forward-looking policy framework [8].