创逾一年新高！人民币汇率盘中升破7.09 专家：有望在2026年保持温和升值

Core Insights - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the USD have both surpassed the 7.09 mark, reaching a new high in over a year, with the central parity rate set at 7.0826 RMB per USD, an increase of 21 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The RMB's mid-price has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points year-to-date, supported by a weaker USD and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] - Experts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong performance against the USD in the short term and may experience moderate appreciation through 2026 [1] Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the RMB's mid-price towards a stronger direction and the robust performance of the domestic economy since the beginning of the year, alongside a significant decline in the USD [2] - The adjustment in the RMB exchange rate is aimed at stabilizing the external environment for China's foreign trade enterprises, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [2] - The anticipated future actions of the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US economy are expected to limit the upward potential of the USD index [2] Group 2 - The impact of external fluctuations on China's exports is becoming evident in the fourth quarter, with significant policy measures in place to stabilize the economy, including the issuance of 500 billion RMB in new policy financial instruments and local government debt limits [3] - The internal economic fundamentals are expected to provide substantial support for the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on maintaining a stable RMB against the USD [3] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable, with limited potential for rapid appreciation above the 7.0 mark before the end of the year [3]