过去三天利率期货持仓量暴涨，市场“确信”12月美联储降息，这一次市场会错吗？

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 4% for the first time in a month, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards lower interest rates [1][3] - A recent survey by JPMorgan shows that investors' net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have reached their highest level in approximately 15 years [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dramatically changed, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut next month now estimated at around 80%, up from just 30% a few days ago [3][5] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials' dovish comments have contributed to the reversal in market expectations regarding interest rates [5][6] - Despite some concerns about inflation from certain officials, it appears that the number of dovish members within the Federal Reserve exceeds that of hawkish members [6] - The options market for SOFR has seen increased activity, particularly in call options related to a potential rate cut in December, indicating strong market positioning for this outcome [8] Group 3 - Some top investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, remain cautious about the likelihood of a rate cut in December, suggesting that the decision will be challenging [9] - Economic indicators show that while the U.S. economy has performed well, there are still risks in the labor market and inflation remains above target levels [10]