铝 偏强运行为主

Group 1 - Aluminum prices have shown limited pullback after breaking the 22,000 yuan/ton mark in mid-November, with a bullish outlook expected to continue [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with current operational capacity at 44.434 million tons, indicating limited room for future capacity increases [2] - The low proportion of aluminum ingots in the current supply structure, with only 22.3% of production being ingots, tightens delivery supplies and supports low inventory levels [2] Group 2 - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by construction (30%), transportation (20%), and electricity (16%), with the real estate market currently in a recovery phase [3] - The automotive sector has shown robust performance, with October production and sales of vehicles increasing by 12.1% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have a significantly higher aluminum consumption per vehicle compared to traditional fuel vehicles, with NEV production and sales in October rising by 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry continues to drive demand for electrolytic aluminum, with a 39.48% year-on-year increase in cumulative installed capacity as of October [4] - Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum stood at 612,000 tons as of November 24, showing a decrease from the previous week and remaining low compared to last year [5] - Overall, the stable supply and growing demand from emerging industries like NEVs and photovoltaics suggest a favorable outlook for aluminum prices [5]