Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating and profit forecast for Jiumaojiu (09922), lowering the target price by 29% to HKD 1.77, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2026, due to a stable third-quarter operation and adjustments in major brands, with same-store sales declining year-on-year [1] Group 1: Third Quarter Performance - The company reported stable operations in Q3 2025, with a total of 530 Taier restaurants, 509 of which are self-operated; 71 for Song Hotpot; and 64 for Jiumaojiu, with 63 self-operated [1] - Taier's self-operated restaurants in mainland China have a table turnover rate of 3.2 times per day, while other regions have 3.9 times; Song Hotpot has 2.4 times, and Jiumaojiu self-operated restaurants have 2.5 times [1] - The average customer spending for Taier's self-operated restaurants is RMB 66 in mainland China and RMB 155 in other regions; Song Hotpot is RMB 100, and Jiumaojiu is RMB 58 [1] - Same-store daily sales for Taier's self-operated restaurants decreased by 9.3% year-on-year; Song Hotpot by 19.1%; and Jiumaojiu by 14.8% [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - For Q4, all brand stores are expected to adjust smoothly, with Taier's same-store revenue decline narrowing further in Q3 2025, approaching flat growth by early September [2] - The impact of the Xibei prepared food incident on customer traffic in shopping center dining areas lasted nearly a month, but the effect has weakened post-National Day, with expectations for Taier's same-store revenue growth to turn positive by year-end [2] - Taier is actively adjusting its store model by adding live fish preparation, which has not significantly affected service standardization; however, raw material costs may slightly increase due to higher waste rates [2] - The company plans to adjust over 200 Taier stores this year and continue with the remaining 300 next year [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiumaojiu and Song Hotpot show similar trends in same-store revenue performance, with the company aiming to improve results through new model stores [3] - The restaurant industry is undergoing a transformation phase with upgraded consumer demands, requiring brands to enhance their offerings in terms of environment, space, products, pricing, service, and promotions [3] - The company is proactively adjusting to meet these demands, which may impact short-term financials but lays a foundation for sustainable future growth [3]
华兴证券：维持九毛九(09922)“持有”评级 旗下个品牌业务调整进展顺利