Summary of Jiamaojiu Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiamaojiu Group - **Brands**: Taier, Song Hotpot, Jiamaojiu Key Points Industry Performance - Daily sales for Jiamaojiu's brands have declined year-on-year: Taier down 21%, Song Hotpot down 24%, Jiamaojiu down 19% [2][3] - However, there are signs of recovery with month-on-month improvements observed in April and May, particularly after the May Day holiday [2][3] New Business Model - Taier has adjusted its menu structure to include more stir-fried dishes to cater to the increasing family customer base and the trend of consumption downgrade [2][4] - The introduction of live fish and fresh-cut beef has led to an average revenue increase of over 30% in new model stores, with average customer spending in Guangzhou rising from 75 RMB to 80 RMB [2][5] Store Management - As of May, 51 underperforming stores have been closed, with plans to close an additional 70-80 stores by year-end, while aiming to remodel 100-150 stores [2][6] - Total store count in mainland China stands at 538, with an additional 31 stores in Hong Kong and overseas, bringing the total to 585 [6] Customer Demographics - The primary customer base remains family-oriented, with limited impact from the decline in business dining [8] - There is a trend of increasing customer expectations regarding dining environment, service, and quality, prompting restaurants to upgrade their offerings [8] Financial Adjustments - A significant impairment charge of 112 million RMB was recorded last year, with expectations of reduced closure losses this year due to prior provisions [10] - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of takeout sales, with Jiamaojiu's takeout share rising from 20% to 23% [11] Competition and Market Strategy - JD.com’s takeout service has significantly contributed to sales growth, with peak contributions reaching around 10% [11][12] - The company is cautious about new store openings, focusing instead on upgrading existing locations [17] Overseas Expansion - The company plans to open a few new stores in Southeast Asia and North America, with a focus on steady growth rather than rapid expansion [18][27] Product Development - Collaboration with Sam's Club on ready-to-eat meals has been successful, with projected retail sales exceeding 100 million RMB this year [19] - The introduction of fresh ingredients is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and profitability [15] Employee Incentives - Adjustments to the employee incentive structure have been made to align with operational performance, focusing on customer satisfaction and team retention [20] Cost Management - The company anticipates stable overhead costs, with ongoing negotiations for rent reductions across its stores [26] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about adapting to market changes and enhancing operational efficiency through strategic adjustments in its business model and store management [7][16]

Group 1 - The target price for Jiumaojiu (09922) has been raised by 16.8% from HKD 2.56 to HKD 2.99, with an investment rating maintained at "Hold" [1] - Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu are expected to improve in Q2, with a significant performance rebound anticipated [1] - The Taier brand has shown a notable improvement in same-store sales from April to early June compared to Q1, with an estimated table turnover rate of approximately 3.3 times in Q2, up from 3.1 times in Q1 [1] Group 2 - The company has initiated a share buyback plan valued at RMB 200 million, which is independent of its dividend policy [2] - The buyback plan, approved on June 6, will not exceed RMB 200 million, representing about 6% of the market value at a price of HKD 2.68 [2] - The company maintains a minimum dividend payout policy of 40%, with an expected dividend rate of 50% for the fiscal year 2025, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 2% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Jiumaojiu with a target price raised to HK$ 2.99 from the previous HK$ 2.56, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% from the current price of HK$ 2.68 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales (SSS), with a decline narrowing in 2Q25E, attributed to initial successes in store format upgrades. The sustainability of this recovery into 2H25E and FY26E is crucial [1][10]. - The management has implemented a store format upgrade focusing on fresh ingredients, which has shown positive results. The upgrades are expected to enhance traffic and sales significantly [10][14]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E increased by 9,042%, 33%, and 22% respectively, reflecting lower impairment losses and improved operating margins [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 6,140 million, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1%. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6,911 million and RMB 7,088 million respectively [2][18]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 327.3 million in FY25E to RMB 532.6 million in FY26E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 142 million in FY25E to RMB 298 million in FY26E [2][18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in diluted EPS for FY25E to RMB 0.103, reflecting a growth of 9,154.1% compared to the previous year [11][18]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is approximately HK$ 3,897.3 million, with a 52-week high of HK$ 5.54 and a low of HK$ 2.19 [4]. - Recent share performance shows a 1-month increase of 3.9%, but a decline of 31.1% over the past 6 months [6]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Mr. Guan Yi Hong, holding 37.4% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 7.5% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 23.9x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 11.4x in FY26E and further to 9.5x in FY27E [2][18]. - The projected dividend yield for FY25E is approximately 2.1%, with a payout ratio assumed at 50% of net profit [14].

Group 1 - The core initiative "Flying Bird Plan" aims to provide care and support for girls in underdeveloped areas, symbolizing their rebirth and empowerment through education [3][5] - The event involved the distribution of care packages worth over 55,000 yuan to 184 eligible girls, including essential items such as hygiene products, backpacks, and thermos cups [3][5] - The necessity for such initiatives is underscored by research indicating that 14.53% of girls in underdeveloped regions have a vague understanding of menstruation, and 39% hold negative attitudes towards it, highlighting the urgent need for education and material support [5] Group 2 - The donations were funded through a charity campaign where 0.5 yuan from each purchase of a specific dish was allocated for the procurement of necessary supplies [5] - In addition to the care packages, the company prepared "love gift bags" for all 611 students at the school, containing practical items to enhance their learning experience [5] - The company, established in 1995, emphasizes its commitment to social responsibility and aims to extend its charitable efforts beyond the dining experience [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company's same-store sales are under pressure in 2024 due to external factors such as subdued dining trends and consumer spending, as well as internal adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - In 2024, same-store revenue for brands such as Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Songhuoguo is expected to decline by -13%, -19%, and -32% respectively [1] - Jiumaojiu is less affected by the economic downturn due to its lower average transaction value of 55 yuan compared to Taier at 71 yuan and Songhuoguo at 103 yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The company is actively making adjustments to improve operations, including optimizing store models and menu structures [1][2] - Store renovations aim to create a warmer and more stylish environment suitable for family gatherings [1] - The menu is being updated to replace non-core dishes and introduce fresh fish, on-site slaughter, and specialty snacks [1] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Outlook - The company has slowed its expansion strategy in 2024, focusing on store upgrades and closures, which may enhance profitability [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 56 million yuan, with core operating profit at 252 million yuan [2] - Profit recovery is anticipated in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 135 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 203 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% respectively [2] Group 4: Supply Chain Development - The company is implementing supply chain improvements, with a central kitchen in Nansha, Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025 [2] - Additional supply chain developments are planned for Shanghai and Chongqing in 2026-2027, which will support accelerated expansion outside the province [2] Group 5: Investment Rating - The company is viewed as being at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with positive adjustments and a potential turning point on the horizon [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.10, 0.12, and 0.15 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.39x, 19.33x, and 15.59x [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing quality, with a shift from aggressive expansion to store upgrades and closures, which is expected to improve operating profit margins [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and the introduction of a new store model that is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved profitability [7] - The supply chain layout is gradually being implemented, with a central kitchen in Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025, and further expansions planned for other regions in 2026-2027 [7] - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 135.26 million, 163.63 million, and 202.98 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,110 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.10 in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.39 [1] - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly, with operating profits of 357.45 million in 2025 and 398.88 million in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing quality, with a shift from aggressive expansion to store upgrades and closures, which is expected to improve operating profit margins [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and the introduction of a new store model that is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved profitability [7] - The supply chain layout is gradually being implemented, with a central kitchen in Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025, and further expansions planned for other regions in 2026-2027 [7] - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 135.26 million, 163.63 million, and 202.98 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% [1][7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,074 million in 2024 to 6,895 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.17% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.04 in 2024 to 0.15 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 56.69 in 2024 to 15.59 in 2027, suggesting an improvement in valuation as earnings grow [1][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage segment is experiencing increasing differentiation [2] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [3][4] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers show significant growth for brands like KFC (+777), McDonald's (+52), and Luckin Coffee (+1474), while brands like Huaiyang and others are seeing declines [6][10] - The tea beverage segment shows mixed results, with brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea (+3123) expanding, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing contractions [8] Average Transaction Price Trends - The average transaction prices for major fast-food brands have shown a downward trend, with KFC and McDonald's experiencing declines of -3.9% and -2.1% respectively in recent months [7] - In the tea beverage sector, brands like Mixue and Heytea are also facing pressure on average transaction prices, with some brands showing significant declines [14] Coffee and Hot Pot Segment - The coffee segment is witnessing strong growth, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner showing net opening increases of 7% and 9% respectively [10] - The hot pot segment, however, is facing challenges, with brands like Haidilao and others showing minimal growth or declines in net openings [11] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a noticeable contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13] - Average transaction prices in these categories are also under pressure, reflecting broader challenges in consumer spending [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese restaurant industry is experiencing a notable recovery driven by a shift in policy focus towards expanding domestic demand, with significant growth in consumer confidence and spending observed in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong restaurant index has rebounded over 20% since April 22, reaching around 787 points, with several restaurant companies like Xiaobai Xiaobai and Jiumaojiu showing positive performance [1]. - In Q1 2024, the offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with the dining sector growing by 14.5% [1]. - The overall revenue of the domestic restaurant industry in 2024 is projected to reach 55,718 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - The restaurant sector has shown double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, with 17 listed restaurant companies reporting an 11% increase in revenue and a 10% increase in profit for 2024 [5][6]. - The coffee and tea segment leads in revenue growth at 22.5%, while traditional Chinese dining (excluding hot pot) and fast food show growth rates of 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively [7]. Group 3: Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - The total number of restaurant stores increased by 20% in 2024, reaching 133,549, with coffee and tea stores growing by 24% [9][11]. - The closure rate of restaurants has risen to 61.2%, indicating a significant industry reshuffle [5]. - The trend of down-market expansion is evident, with 52% of restaurant stores located in third-tier cities and below [13]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Companies like Haidilao are adopting franchise models to penetrate lower-tier markets, with over 70% of franchise applications coming from these areas [14]. - New business models are being explored, such as Kudi Coffee's convenience store concept and Guoquan's community kitchen strategy [15]. - The restaurant sector is expected to stabilize in Q2 2025, with a potential recovery in valuation and fundamentals as seasonal demand increases [16].

Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of HK$1.2 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[2]. - The company achieved a net profit of HK$300 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the previous year[2]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 6,073,644, an increase from RMB 5,985,850 in 2023, representing a growth of 1.5%[27]. - Profit for the year was RMB 44,800, down from RMB 479,998 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 90.6%[27]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 104,787, compared to RMB 504,335 in 2023, a decrease of 79.2%[27]. - Profit before taxation decreased to RMB 74,008 in 2024 from RMB 636,384 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 88.4%[27]. - Core operating profit fell to RMB 252,272 in 2024 from RMB 632,077 in 2023, a drop of 60.1%[27]. - Store level operating profit for 2024 was RMB 748,320, a decline from RMB 1,076,967 in 2023, representing a decrease of 30.4%[27]. - The Group recorded a profit from equity investments at fair value through other comprehensive income of RMB 14.8 million for 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 8.9 million in 2023[141]. - Profit for the year plummeted by 90.7% from RMB 480.0 million in 2023 to RMB 44.8 million in 2024[140]. Customer and Market Growth - User data indicates that the number of active customers grew by 25% to 1.5 million in 2024[2]. - The company expects revenue growth to continue at a rate of 10-15% for the next fiscal year, driven by new product launches and market expansion[2]. - Jiumaojiu plans to introduce three new restaurant concepts in 2025, targeting a 30% increase in customer footfall[2]. - Market expansion efforts include opening 20 new locations across China in the next year, aiming for a 50% increase in market presence[2]. - The Group operates Tai Er restaurants in multiple countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in regions with significant Chinese populations[83]. Operational Challenges - The company reported a significant decline in profitability metrics, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and market conditions[27]. - Same store sales for Tai Er (self-operated) decreased by 18.8% to RMB 3,308,988 in 2024, while Song Hot Pot saw a decline of 31.6% to RMB 348,447[40]. - The Group's restaurant performance declined in 2024 due to external environmental changes and intensified competition in the catering market[64]. - The average spending per customer in 2024 decreased for most brands, with Tai Er at RMB 71 (down from RMB 75), Song Hot Pot at RMB 103 (down from RMB 113), and Jiu Mao Jiu at RMB 55 (down from RMB 58)[62]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing HK$100 million in technology upgrades to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[2]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its market position[2]. - The company has implemented a new marketing strategy focusing on digital channels, which is expected to increase brand awareness by 40%[2]. - Ongoing research and development efforts are aimed at introducing new products and technologies to strengthen market position[27]. - The Group is focusing on optimizing product offerings and enhancing customer experience to strengthen brand competitiveness[77]. Financial Position and Ratios - Total assets decreased from RMB 6,520.9 million in 2023 to RMB 6,488.6 million in 2024, while total liabilities increased from RMB 3,163.9 million to RMB 3,337.5 million[170]. - The liabilities-to-assets ratio increased from 48.5% in 2023 to 51.4% in 2024, indicating a higher financial leverage[170]. - The current ratio decreased from 2.00 in 2023 to 1.45 in 2024, suggesting a decline in short-term financial health[171]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 54.3% from RMB 1,326.9 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB 607.0 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to dividends paid and purchases of non-current financial assets[177][180]. - The gearing ratio increased from 7.3% as of December 31, 2023 to 12.0% as of December 31, 2024, mainly due to an increase in bank loans and a decrease in total equity from dividend payments[178][181]. Employee and Staff Costs - Staff costs increased by 13.1% from RMB 1,544.1 million in 2023 to RMB 1,747.0 million in 2024, with its percentage of revenue increasing from 25.8% to 28.8%[112]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had a total of 20,735 employees, including outsourced personnel[199]. Future Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the overall market conditions and consumer spending trends in the upcoming quarters[2]. - Future outlook includes potential strategies for market expansion and product innovation to recover from the current downturn[27]. - The Group plans to adopt a more prudent restaurant opening strategy in 2025, with no specific target for new openings to ensure a 100% success rate for each restaurant[74].