机构：东吴证券 研究员：苏铖/邓洁 盈利预测与投资评级：基本面底部或已现，公司积极梳理调整，且趋势向好、拐点可期。我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润为1.35/1.64/2.03 亿元，同比增速分别为142.37%/20.97%/24.05%，EPS 分别为 0.10/0.12/0.15元，对应当前PE23.39x、19.33x、15.59x，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险、食品安全风险、行业竞争加剧的风险。 2024 年同店承压主要系外因（餐饮平淡、消费力掣肘）、内部调整共同作用的结果。分品牌看，2024 年九毛九/太二/怂火锅同店收入同比分别-13%/-19%/-32%，九毛九由于客单价较低（2024 年九毛九/太 二/怂火锅客单价分别为55/71/103 元），受到经济下行影响相对更小。此外，开店节奏、菜品丰富度、 预制菜舆论及装修风格亦对经营产生短期影响。虽多歧路，但公司调整积极，边际改善：（1）优化门 店模型：整改装修，整体更加温馨时尚，更加适配家庭聚餐等场景；（2）优化菜单结构：更换非核心 菜品，增加活鱼到店、门店现杀，以及热炒类、特色小吃甜点等。门店调改以太二先行，新店 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing quality, with a shift from aggressive expansion to store upgrades and closures, which is expected to improve operating profit margins [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and the introduction of a new store model that is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved profitability [7] - The supply chain layout is gradually being implemented, with a central kitchen in Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025, and further expansions planned for other regions in 2026-2027 [7] - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 135.26 million, 163.63 million, and 202.98 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,110 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.10 in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.39 [1] - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly, with operating profits of 357.45 million in 2025 and 398.88 million in 2026 [8]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 九毛九（09922.HK） 优化门店，梳理提质 2025 年 05 月 30 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,994 | 6,074 | 6,110 | 6,434 | 6,895 | | 同比(%) | 49.54 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 5.29 | 7.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 453.46 | 55.81 | 135.26 | 163.63 | 202.98 | | 同比(%) | 820.17 | (87.69) | 142.37 | 20.97 | 24.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 6.98 | 56.69 | 23.39 | 19.33 | 15.59 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of HK$1.2 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[2]. - The company achieved a net profit of HK$300 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the previous year[2]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 6,073,644, an increase from RMB 5,985,850 in 2023, representing a growth of 1.5%[27]. - Profit for the year was RMB 44,800, down from RMB 479,998 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 90.6%[27]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 104,787, compared to RMB 504,335 in 2023, a decrease of 79.2%[27]. - Profit before taxation decreased to RMB 74,008 in 2024 from RMB 636,384 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 88.4%[27]. - Core operating profit fell to RMB 252,272 in 2024 from RMB 632,077 in 2023, a drop of 60.1%[27]. - Store level operating profit for 2024 was RMB 748,320, a decline from RMB 1,076,967 in 2023, representing a decrease of 30.4%[27]. - The Group recorded a profit from equity investments at fair value through other comprehensive income of RMB 14.8 million for 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 8.9 million in 2023[141]. - Profit for the year plummeted by 90.7% from RMB 480.0 million in 2023 to RMB 44.8 million in 2024[140]. Customer and Market Growth - User data indicates that the number of active customers grew by 25% to 1.5 million in 2024[2]. - The company expects revenue growth to continue at a rate of 10-15% for the next fiscal year, driven by new product launches and market expansion[2]. - Jiumaojiu plans to introduce three new restaurant concepts in 2025, targeting a 30% increase in customer footfall[2]. - Market expansion efforts include opening 20 new locations across China in the next year, aiming for a 50% increase in market presence[2]. - The Group operates Tai Er restaurants in multiple countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in regions with significant Chinese populations[83]. Operational Challenges - The company reported a significant decline in profitability metrics, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and market conditions[27]. - Same store sales for Tai Er (self-operated) decreased by 18.8% to RMB 3,308,988 in 2024, while Song Hot Pot saw a decline of 31.6% to RMB 348,447[40]. - The Group's restaurant performance declined in 2024 due to external environmental changes and intensified competition in the catering market[64]. - The average spending per customer in 2024 decreased for most brands, with Tai Er at RMB 71 (down from RMB 75), Song Hot Pot at RMB 103 (down from RMB 113), and Jiu Mao Jiu at RMB 55 (down from RMB 58)[62]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing HK$100 million in technology upgrades to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[2]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its market position[2]. - The company has implemented a new marketing strategy focusing on digital channels, which is expected to increase brand awareness by 40%[2]. - Ongoing research and development efforts are aimed at introducing new products and technologies to strengthen market position[27]. - The Group is focusing on optimizing product offerings and enhancing customer experience to strengthen brand competitiveness[77]. Financial Position and Ratios - Total assets decreased from RMB 6,520.9 million in 2023 to RMB 6,488.6 million in 2024, while total liabilities increased from RMB 3,163.9 million to RMB 3,337.5 million[170]. - The liabilities-to-assets ratio increased from 48.5% in 2023 to 51.4% in 2024, indicating a higher financial leverage[170]. - The current ratio decreased from 2.00 in 2023 to 1.45 in 2024, suggesting a decline in short-term financial health[171]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 54.3% from RMB 1,326.9 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB 607.0 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to dividends paid and purchases of non-current financial assets[177][180]. - The gearing ratio increased from 7.3% as of December 31, 2023 to 12.0% as of December 31, 2024, mainly due to an increase in bank loans and a decrease in total equity from dividend payments[178][181]. Employee and Staff Costs - Staff costs increased by 13.1% from RMB 1,544.1 million in 2023 to RMB 1,747.0 million in 2024, with its percentage of revenue increasing from 25.8% to 28.8%[112]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had a total of 20,735 employees, including outsourced personnel[199]. Future Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the overall market conditions and consumer spending trends in the upcoming quarters[2]. - Future outlook includes potential strategies for market expansion and product innovation to recover from the current downturn[27]. - The Group plans to adopt a more prudent restaurant opening strategy in 2025, with no specific target for new openings to ensure a 100% success rate for each restaurant[74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, a significant decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is set to enhance its supply chain capabilities with the expected launch of the Nansha supply chain center in Guangzhou in 2025, which is anticipated to lower costs related to raw materials. Additionally, the establishment of supermarket sales and online retail businesses in 2024 is expected to broaden external market opportunities [2][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.45 billion, 7.086 billion, and 7.825 billion yuan, with net profits of 194 million, 301 million, and 334 million yuan respectively [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges in restaurant performance, leading to a cautious approach in asset impairment provisions. The impairment losses for properties, plants, and equipment increased by 411.9% year-on-year, reaching 112 million yuan [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales for the main brands showed a slight increase compared to Q4 2024, with stable per-customer spending for two consecutive quarters [6][9]. Brand and Store Adjustments - In 2024, the company opened 150 new restaurants while closing 69, resulting in a total of 807 restaurants by the end of the year. The new brand "Shanwaimian" showed promising potential with a table turnover rate of 4.3 times per day and an average spending of 87 yuan [9][9]. - The company continued to adjust its brand matrix, with a reduction in the number of stores to 780 in Q1 2025, primarily due to closures in the "Tai Er" brand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, a significant decrease of 87.7% [1][3] - The company plans to optimize its brand portfolio and enhance supply chain capabilities, with new store openings and menu innovations expected to drive future growth [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a core operating profit of 252 million yuan, down 60.1% year-on-year [1] - For the second half of 2024, the company recorded a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The revenue breakdown by brand for 2024 shows that Taier, Jiumaojiu, Song Hotpot, and other brands generated revenues of 4.413 billion, 546 million, 895 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.2%, +11.0%, and +201.4% [1] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 Taier stores and 28 Song Hotpot stores, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a year-on-year increase of 56 stores [2] - The same-store sales for Taier decreased by 18.8% in 2024, while Song Hotpot saw a decline of 31.6% [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.761 billion, 7.878 billion, and 9.292 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 99 million, 263 million, and 411 million yuan [9] - The company is expected to maintain a cautious approach to expansion while optimizing existing stores and menu offerings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 87.7% to 56 million yuan [1][3] - The company is optimizing its brand portfolio and enhancing supply chain capabilities, with new store formats and menu updates expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.74 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60.1% [1] - In the second half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company plans to achieve revenues of 67.61 billion yuan, 78.78 billion yuan, and 92.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 99 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 411 million yuan [8][9] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 for the Taier brand and 28 for the Song Hotpot brand, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a same-store sales decline of 18.8% [2] - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities with a new center expected to be operational by 2025, which will support core brand ingredient processing and sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant chain Jiumaojiu reported a slight revenue increase of 1.5% to 6.074 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, but its net profit plummeted by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan, indicating significant operational challenges and declining consumer interest [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Net profit fell sharply by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan [1] - The company proposed a dividend payout of 0.02 HKD per share, totaling approximately 51.62 million yuan, a decrease of 74.6% from over 200 million yuan in 2023 [1] Operational Challenges - The total number of restaurants increased by 81, but the main brand Jiumaojiu saw a net decrease of 6 locations [1] - Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu and Taier dropped by 13.0% and 18.8%, respectively, with the latter's sales falling from 5.09 billion yuan to 3.48 billion yuan, a decline of over 31% [5] - The average consumer spending for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.2%, 5.3%, and 8.8%, respectively, reaching levels comparable to those during the pandemic [2][5] Market Competition - The domestic restaurant industry saw a revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, down from over 20% in 2023, indicating increased competition with 3.574 million new restaurant registrations [2] - The turnover rates for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.6%, 16.7%, and 28.6%, respectively, reflecting a decline in customer traffic [3] Strategic Initiatives - Jiumaojiu has opened up franchise opportunities for the Taier brand and is focusing on expanding the new brand "Shanwaimian" through a franchise model [8][10] - The company is attempting to upgrade its existing brands by introducing fresh ingredients and new menu items to counteract the negative perception of pre-prepared dishes [6] International Expansion - Jiumaojiu's international expansion has been slow, with only 30 overseas locations established since 2021, primarily in Southeast Asia and North America [11] - The average turnover rate for overseas restaurants has decreased from 4.4 times to 4.2 times per day, indicating challenges in adapting to local markets [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, although the overall performance remains under pressure due to external conditions [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1, 2.6, and 2.6 times per day for Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiu Mao Jiu respectively, showing year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but the decline showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - Average customer spending was RMB 72, RMB 100, and RMB 56 for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [3][8]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8]. Customer Experience Initiatives - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new products and a "Heartfelt Service Plan." In March 2025, a new "Fresh" store model was introduced to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, enhancing customer loyalty through promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 0.1, RMB 0.15, and RMB 0.24 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 16.7, and 10.1 [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].