Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 02:17Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Alibaba's Hong Kong and US stocks are trading at 24/23 times FY26 and 16/16 times FY27 non-GAAP P/E ratios, maintaining FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts while raising non-GAAP net profit estimates by 12% for both years due to better-than-expected food delivery losses, offset by increased losses in other businesses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 2QFY26 revenue increased by 4.8% to 247.8 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 15% after excluding asset deconsolidation effects, outperforming expectations due to strong performance in Chinese e-commerce [2] - Adjusted EBITA fell by 77.6% year-on-year to 9.1 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investment in Taobao Flash Sales, but exceeded expectations due to strong cloud and international business performance [2] Group 2: Cloud Computing - Cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in 2QFY26, with internal and external customer revenue increasing by 29% and 51% respectively, driven by demand for large model training and AI feature iterations in products like Gaode, DingTalk, and Quark [3] - Cloud EBITA reached 3.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a profit margin of 9%, with capital expenditures of 31.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for upward adjustments in capital spending due to strong demand [3] - The company expects cloud revenue to maintain over 30% year-on-year growth in the coming quarters as capital expenditures increase and AI applications are implemented [3] Group 3: E-commerce Performance - Taobao Flash Sales reported an EBITA loss of 36.7 billion yuan in 2QFY26, with significant investments made during July and August to expand order volume; however, since October, losses have halved due to order structure optimization and improved fulfillment efficiency [4] - E-commerce customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% this quarter, but EBITA for Chinese e-commerce excluding Flash Sales showed single-digit growth; the company anticipates a 6% increase in CMR for 3QFY26 due to pressures on GMV and CMR from weak consumer spending and high base effects [5]