Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 02:25Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for the fiscal year 2026 by 7%, with net profit forecast increased by 6% to 8.75 billion HKD, and forecasts for 2027 to 2028 raised by 2% due to expectations of stable gold prices and gradual macroeconomic recovery [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The mid-term performance of Chow Tai Fook met expectations, with the gross margin guidance raised from 28.3-28.7% to 31-32%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - Considering higher hedging losses, the latest guidance indicates that net profit for fiscal year 2026 is expected to grow by 44-55% year-on-year, reaching 8.5 to 9.1 billion HKD, with a projected year-on-year growth of 75-90% in the second half of the fiscal year [1] Group 2: Sales Growth - From October 1 to November 18, same-store sales growth in mainland self-operated stores reached 48.7%, while franchise stores grew by 38.8%, and the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw an increase of 18.3% [1] - Despite price increases following the VAT reform, demand in November remained in double-digit growth [1] Group 3: Management Outlook - The company maintains its original revenue guidance, with management expressing a cautious attitude as they continue to observe demand trends post-VAT reform, indicating that future guidance will be updated accordingly [1] - Current demand trends have exceeded management's expectations, and the company is confident in its competitive position, believing that the tax reform will benefit leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [1]