Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 02:24Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for the fiscal year 2026 by 7% and the net profit forecast by 6% to 8.75 billion yuan, anticipating that gold prices will remain stable and the macro environment will gradually recover [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for 2027 to 2028 has been increased by 2% due to expectations of stable gold prices and a recovering macro environment [1] - The net profit for fiscal year 2026 is projected to grow by 44% to 55% year-on-year, reaching between 8.5 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 75% to 90% in the second half of the fiscal year [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - From October 1 to November 18, same-store sales growth for self-operated stores in mainland China reached 48.7%, while franchise stores grew by 38.8%, and the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw an increase of 18.3% [1] - Despite price increases following the VAT reform, demand in November continued to show mid-double-digit growth [1] Group 3: Management Guidance - The company has raised its gross margin guidance from 28.3% to 28.7% to a new range of 31% to 32%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - Management remains cautious about revenue guidance, as they are still observing demand trends post-VAT reform, but current demand trends have surpassed their expectations [1] - The company expresses confidence in the competitive landscape, believing that the tax reform will benefit leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [1]