电动车补贴结束会影响钯金需求和价格吗？

Core Insights - Palladium prices surged from $870 per ounce in early April 2025 to nearly $1,700 by October, marking an increase of over 95%, with a simultaneous rise in gold, silver, and platinum prices during the same period [1] - The global inflationary environment driving this surge is attributed to three main factors: significant budget deficits in multiple countries with limited control measures, core inflation rates exceeding target levels and trending upwards, and the easing of monetary policies by most central banks despite rising inflation [1] Price Correlation and Trends - Palladium typically shows a positive correlation with other precious metals, but this correlation is weaker compared to the relationships among gold and silver, which are primarily driven by jewelry demand [4] - The second strongest correlation among precious metals is between palladium and platinum, reflecting their applications in automotive catalytic converters, with palladium used in gasoline engines and platinum in diesel engines [4][8] Supply Dynamics - Palladium is rarely used in jewelry, with its primary application in the automotive industry, highlighting its price trend independence compared to other metals [10] - The supply of palladium is highly concentrated, particularly in Russia and South Africa, with overall global palladium production showing a declining trend since 2003 [15] - The demand for palladium surged due to stricter automotive emission laws and concerns over supply disruptions from Russia, leading to a parabolic price increase in the late 1990s [15] Market Shifts - Since 2021, palladium prices have returned to historical price ratio ranges relative to gold, silver, and platinum, coinciding with peak palladium usage per vehicle and a surge in electric vehicle sales [18] - In the U.S., electric vehicle sales are projected to account for 11.4% of total vehicle sales in 2024, while in China, the share is expected to approach 50% [20][18] Investment Considerations - Palladium presents research value as a potential diversification tool for investors looking to allocate precious metals, given its limited supply and the inability of central banks to print or digitally create such assets [23]