酒店接下来的日子会好么？

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry's core operating indicators are recovering, and positive growth is likely in the fourth quarter of this year. High-quality and affordable properties are increasing, making hotel projects one of the investment opportunities with high return certainty [1]. Group 1: Hotel Group Performance - The operating data of leading hotel groups is gradually improving, and investors should focus on core operating data rather than revenue and net profit changes, which can be misleading due to variations in direct store numbers and non-core business fluctuations [3]. - Huazhu Group reported a Q3 RevPAR of 256 RMB, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with occupancy (OCC) down 0.8 percentage points to 84.1% and average daily rate (ADR) up 0.9% to 304 RMB. This indicates a turnaround from Q2, where RevPAR fell by 3.8% [4]. - Jinjiang Hotel Group's Q3 RevPAR was 170.9 RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 1.99%, improving from Q2's decline of 5.0%. The ADR for limited-service hotels was 245.0 RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.06 percentage points [5][6]. - Shoulv Hotel's Q3 RevPAR was 165 RMB, down 2.8% year-on-year, an improvement from Q2's 5.7% decline. The ADR was 259 RMB, also showing a smaller decline compared to Q2 [7]. - Atour Hotel's Q3 RevPAR was 371 RMB, down 2.2% year-on-year, with ADR at 447 RMB, reflecting a similar trend of narrowing declines [8]. - Overall, the core operating indicators of major domestic hotel chains are showing signs of narrowing declines and potential recovery, with some metrics like ADR already on the rise [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Factors - STR data indicates that the Chinese hotel market is showing positive signals, with an average room rate increase of 3.6% in October, leading to a 2.2% year-on-year increase in RevPAR [11]. - The China Hotel Association reported a hospitality consumption index (HCI) of 106.3 in October, reflecting a strong V-shaped recovery with a 19.8% month-on-month increase, the highest since May [12][14]. - The overall economic growth is supportive, with a retail sales total of 365,877 billion RMB and a growth rate of 4.46% from January to September 2025. Domestic travel during the National Day holiday saw 8.88 billion trips, an increase of 1.23 billion from the previous year [16]. - The rental market is favorable for hotel investments, with significant declines in rental prices, particularly in major cities, creating opportunities for high-quality, low-cost properties [20]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Future hotel investments should focus on the mid-range and economy segments, with an emphasis on finding competitive chain brands. The industry is witnessing a split in the economy hotel market, with some brands moving towards mid-range offerings [21][22]. - The demand for culturally enriched hotel brands is increasing, as they can command higher premiums. Flexible long-stay brands are also gaining popularity, appealing to both short and long-stay markets [23]. - Soft brands are becoming more attractive for investment, as they offer flexibility in construction, design, and operations, which can better adapt to market changes [24].