果然财经｜鸭绒一涨再涨，羽绒服市场“冷静”消费

Core Viewpoint - The price of duck down has surged dramatically, with current prices reaching 580,000 yuan per ton, up from over 400,000 yuan per ton last year, leading to discussions about the affordability of down jackets [1][4]. Price Trends - The price of white duck down is currently at 564.06 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an 11.91% year-on-year increase [1]. - The price fluctuation for white duck down has been significant, with a range of 55.3 yuan in less than a month, peaking at 570.38 yuan per kilogram [4]. - In contrast, white goose down prices have decreased by 14.66% year-on-year, currently priced at 938.52 yuan per kilogram [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Duck farming has seen a reduction in production by 50% due to low duck meat prices, which has led to a significant decrease in down supply [6][9]. - The demand for down products has surged, driven by expectations of a colder winter and low inventory levels in the market [9][10]. - Short-term concentrated procurement by brands has further exacerbated the supply-demand gap, pushing prices higher [10]. Consumer Impact - Despite rising raw material costs, consumers have not felt a significant impact on down jacket prices due to promotional strategies employed by brands [11][12]. - Discounts and promotions have become common, allowing consumers to purchase down jackets at prices comparable to previous years [12]. - The evolution of down jacket products, including the use of higher quality materials and improved designs, has also contributed to maintaining consumer interest [13]. Market Outlook - The current price surge in duck down is attributed to a combination of supply chain issues, climate expectations, and market demand fluctuations [14]. - Predictions indicate that high duck down prices may stabilize, leading to a market that gradually returns to a demand-driven equilibrium [14].