Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar (USD), driven by higher-than-expected inflation data, with the latest trading around 0.6483 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, surpassing the previous level of 3.5% and market expectations of 3.6% [1][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% in December, as current inflation remains above the target range of 2-3% [3]. - The RBA's November meeting minutes indicate a preference for keeping interest rates stable, with only a 6% probability of a rate cut to 3.35% in December according to interest rate futures [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the AUD is contrasted by a weakening USD, with the US Dollar Index stabilizing around 99.80 after a mild decline [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with over 84% probability for a 25 basis point cut, up from 50% a week prior [3]. - Supporting factors for this expectation include a drop in the US core PPI, slowing retail sales growth, and a significant decline in the consumer confidence index to 88.7 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD currency pair is currently in a rectangular consolidation range, with effective support around 0.6420 and resistance at the 9-day moving average of 0.6479 [4]. - A successful breakout above the 0.6479 level could lead the AUD to challenge the psychological level of 0.6500, with stronger resistance anticipated around 0.6630 [4].
Juno markets 外匯：澳元兑美元走强 澳大利亚10月CPI数据超预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-26 02:53