2025国补即将收官，明年还会有吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions about the cessation of national subsidies reflect an urgent signal regarding the usage rate of these subsidies, with potential risks emerging in the post-subsidy era [1][3]. Group 1: National Subsidy Overview - A total of 690 billion yuan in national subsidies has been fully allocated, with 3.3 billion people applying for the "old-for-new" consumer goods subsidy, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3]. - The retail sales of household appliances and related products have seen significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% in various categories, contributing to a 4.6% growth in total retail sales [3]. - The national subsidy program is entering its final phase, with over 80% of the funds already utilized, and some regions may stop subsidies 1-2 months early, with no similar scale of subsidies expected in 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Risks of Subsidy Withdrawal - The home appliance industry faces dual concerns of demand overextension and intensified price competition as the subsidy program winds down [4]. - The dependency on subsidies has increased among manufacturers, channels, and consumers, leading to a potential decline in effective demand as the policy funds are exhausted [4]. - The end of subsidies may trigger a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, with some consumers delaying purchases or opting for alternative products, particularly under current economic pressures [4][5]. Group 3: Lessons from Past Experiences - Historical experiences from the "home appliance going to the countryside" subsidy program (2008-2012) highlight the challenges of overcapacity and market shrinkage following subsidy withdrawal [5]. - Successful strategies from leading home appliance companies include optimizing manufacturing capacity, upgrading outdated production lines, and transitioning to smart manufacturing [5][6]. - Emphasis on technological upgrades and green energy solutions is crucial for enhancing product value, with companies like Haier and Oaks investing in R&D for product innovation [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts for Future Growth - Companies are encouraged to replace policy-driven growth with service and brand upgrades, focusing on enhancing customer experience and service value [6][7]. - The shift from a product-centric to a service-oriented approach is becoming essential, particularly in the home renovation market, to improve consumer engagement and satisfaction [6][7]. - The transition to a self-sustaining growth model is necessary for home furnishing and building material companies to build long-term competitiveness in the post-subsidy era [7].