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申万宏源:维持小鹏汽车-W“买入”评级 Q3符合预期 全面转型AI企业
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 03:05

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (09868), highlighting the commencement of a new vehicle cycle, exceeding expectations in external collaborations and internal reforms, significantly enhancing profitability, and potential breakthroughs in robotics and flying car businesses [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%; gross margin at 17.9%, up 3.7 percentage points; and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.52 billion, a reduction in loss by 2.94 billion [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%; gross margin at 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net loss attributable to shareholders was 380 million, a reduction in loss by 1.43 billion year-on-year and 100 million quarter-on-quarter [2] Sales Structure and Margin Analysis - The launch of the XPeng G7 in Q3 2025 accounted for 13% of total sales; however, the sales proportion of G6, G9, and X9 declined due to a wait-and-see attitude before the launch of the extended-range platform, leading to a slight decrease in automotive gross margin [3] - The collaboration with Volkswagen resulted in service and other income of 2.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%, significantly boosting overall gross margin [3] - The delivery guidance for Q4 is set at 125,000 to 132,000 units, indicating a potential return to profitability in a single quarter [3] Expansion of User Base - The MONA M03 and P7+ models are expected to increase monthly sales from 10,000 to 30,000 units, with the G7 pushing XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities to Level 3, marking a new era in smart driving [4] - The X9 extended-range version is set to launch at the Guangzhou Auto Show, with anticipated significant sales growth in Q4, and future models will be equipped with extended-range systems to drive sales expansion [4] AI and Robotics Transformation - The company is redefining future vehicles as next-generation robots, integrating internet platform capabilities, with software expected to account for 50% of the value [5] - The seventh-generation humanoid robot focuses on full-stack self-research and cross-domain integration, with plans for orderly mass production in the coming months, aiming for a sales price close to that of cars [5] - The introduction of a highly economical L4 fully shared robotaxi model is expected to have competitive commercial logic, enhancing the company's transformation into an AI enterprise with significant monetization potential [5]