大行评级丨大摩：维持周大福目标价19港元及“增持”评级 上调盈利预测

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Chow Tai Fook's mid-term performance meets expectations, with an upward adjustment in gross margin guidance from 28.3-28.7% to 31-32%, exceeding the bank's forecast [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The latest guidance suggests that net profit for the fiscal year 2026 will grow by 44-55% year-on-year, reaching HKD 85-91 billion, which translates to a year-on-year increase of 75-90% for the second half of the fiscal year [1] - The bank has raised its earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 2026 by 7% and net profit forecast by 6% to HKD 87.5 billion [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have been increased by 2%, based on expectations that gold prices will remain stable and the macro environment will gradually recover [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite strong recent sales, the company maintains its original revenue guidance, with management expressing caution due to ongoing observation of demand trends post-VAT reform [1] - Current demand trends are better than management's expectations, and the company is confident in its competitive position, believing that tax reforms will benefit leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [1] - The target price remains at HKD 19 with a "buy" rating [1]