Core Insights - The flu season in China has entered a rapid rise phase, with the flu activity level in most provinces reaching moderate levels, and some provinces experiencing high levels of flu activity [1][4] - The demand for antiviral drugs has surged, with sales of Oseltamivir increasing by 237% and Baloxavir Marboxil by 180% in the past week [1][4] Group 1: Flu Activity and Trends - The flu season for 2025 has arrived earlier than in previous years, with the current dominant virus strain being the H3N2 subtype, alongside H1N1 and B-type strains [2][4] - The proportion of flu-like cases in sentinel hospitals in northern provinces has exceeded 12%, which is two to three times higher than the average from 2020 to 2023 [4] - Clinical experts predict that the peak of the flu season is expected to occur between mid-December 2023 and early January 2024 [4] Group 2: Demand for Antiviral Drugs - There has been a significant increase in the demand for flu medications, with Oseltamivir sales rising 4.5 times and Baloxavir Marboxil sales increasing fivefold from November 17 to November 23 [5] - The sales of flu test kits and cough medications have also seen substantial increases, with test kit sales up 4.8 times and cough medications over three times [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The antiviral drug market is evolving, with Oseltamivir historically dominating the market but facing increased competition from generic versions and new entrants since the expiration of its patent in 2016 [7] - Domestic manufacturers have introduced several new antiviral drugs, with Baloxavir Marboxil seeing significant sales growth after being included in the national medical insurance directory [7][8] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify with the introduction of new drugs targeting different viral mechanisms, which may lead to price adjustments and enhanced market strategies [8][9] Group 4: Public Awareness and Education - There is a prevalent misunderstanding among the public regarding the distinction between flu and common cold, which can affect treatment decisions [12] - Education on the importance of early antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset is crucial for effective flu management [12][13]
流感季提前到来，奥司他韦7天销量飙升237%