TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-11-26 03:29Core Viewpoint - The investment theme in the home appliance industry for 2026 is clear, focusing on seeking certainty amid uncertainty, identifying high growth in emerging categories, and seizing opportunities in a reshaped market landscape [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the period from January to November 2025, the Shenwan home appliance industry index rose by 8%, with significant structural differentiation within the sector [2] - The home appliance components sector saw a remarkable increase of 62%, indicating a high premium on its growth logic [2] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales of white goods experienced a peak followed by a decline, influenced by national subsidies, with high base pressure expected in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [3] - Exports of white goods significantly slowed down from the second quarter of 2025 due to tariff uncertainties and high inventory levels after a rush to export [3] - With the expectation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the overseas capacity layout of leading companies like Midea and Haier, white goods exports are anticipated to improve [3] Group 3: Black Goods - The global black goods market is undergoing a reshaping trend characterized by "Chinese brands advancing while Korean brands retreating," with companies like Hisense and TCL enhancing their market share through Mini LED technology upgrades and global capacity layouts [4] - The focus of competition is shifting towards technology, cost, and operational efficiency as the panel cycle weakens, allowing Chinese brands to capture more market space [4] Group 4: Emerging Categories - The global market for robotic vacuum cleaners is experiencing simultaneous growth in volume and price, although high price points are suppressing rapid penetration [5] - The competition in the robotic vacuum cleaner segment is expected to shift towards cost-effective products in 2026, with attention needed on the impact of subsidy reductions [5] - The smart lawn mower segment is seeing rapid penetration driven by mainstream technology routes, with Chinese brands like Ecovacs and Roborock leading in online market share [5] - The home NAS market has significant potential, with estimated sales growth capacity of about five times [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major appliances such as Haier and Midea, small appliances like Roborock and Ecovacs, black goods like Hisense and TCL, and other appliances such as Shield Environment and Dechang [6]