Core Viewpoint - The copper market is entering a strong cycle driven by "supply hard constraints" and "new demand momentum," with optimistic long-term prospects for copper prices due to structural supply shortages and robust demand from AI and energy revolutions [1]. Group 1: Supply Side Analysis - The copper mine output interference rate is increasing, and long-term exploration spending is insufficient, leading to a structural supply shortage in copper [2]. - In 2025, global copper mine supply interference is expected to rise significantly due to production adjustments at projects like Grasberg, Kakula, Batu Hijau, and QB2, resulting in downward revisions of copper mine output [2]. - The limited number of large projects under construction and a decrease in capital expenditure will likely lead to stable or declining copper concentrate production, further reducing global copper supply [2]. Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand for copper remains stable, supported by domestic grid investments and high growth in emerging markets, maintaining over 70% of total demand [3]. - New demand from AI computing power and the energy revolution is expected to structurally improve copper demand, with its share of overall demand projected to increase from 16% to 22% by 2030 [3]. - Even with optimistic supply scenarios, the copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance, with a supply-demand gap continuing into 2026, leading to potential price increases [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Price Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are expected to drive copper prices higher, despite short-term pressures from liquidity constraints [4]. - In 2026, under a favorable macro environment, copper prices are projected to reach $13,000 per ton on the LME and exceed ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai, with a long-term bullish outlook as supply decreases [3][4].
中邮证券：供给趋紧格局初定 铜市步入长期景气新纪元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 03:45