Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 03:44Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "Overweight" rating for Trip.com Group (09961) with a target price of HKD 733, highlighting steady domestic growth and continued high growth overseas, alongside increased investment returns and expanding user share and influence [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 18.367 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%. Adjusted EBITDA was CNY 6.346 billion, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit reached CNY 6.134 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders surged to CNY 19.890 billion, a remarkable increase of 194.01%, while adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was CNY 19.156 billion, up 221.25% [2]. Travel Segments Analysis - Business travel has accelerated, but group tours have shown a slowdown. Transportation growth rebounded in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, compared to 10.8% in Q2 2025. Hotel growth remained in double digits but showed a sequential slowdown. The decline in group tours since Q1 2025 is attributed to a structural shift towards independent travel and external risk factors affecting key destinations in Southeast Asia and East Asia. Business travel revenue growth has improved, marking the highest growth since Q1 2024, indicating a stabilization in demand [3]. Profitability and Market Competition - The company maintained stable profit growth, with a slight decline in gross margin primarily due to the increased share of overseas business and structural factors. Since 2025, the company has significantly increased investment in Trip, aligning marketing expenses with previous budgets. This investment has contributed to rapid growth in overseas Trip and a swift increase in user share. The competitive landscape is expected to shift towards capturing incremental shares from offline to online markets. The company has shown consistent profit margin improvement over several quarters, indicating a favorable competitive environment and stable profitability, with smooth progress in overseas markets [4].