俄罗斯央行抛售2300吨黄金：扛不住，还是储备见底？

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has begun selling its physical gold reserves to address the national budget deficit amid ongoing war conditions, marking a shift from gold as a safety asset to a liquidity tool [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in Gold Reserves - Approximately 57% of the national wealth fund's gold, equating to 232.6 tons, has been sold, leaving 173.1 tons as of November 1 [1]. - The transition from bookkeeping adjustments to actual physical delivery of gold signifies a change in approach, moving from internal transfers to tangible gold bars exchanged for cash [3]. Group 2: Economic Pressures and Policy Adjustments - External financing pressures have increased due to sanctions freezing foreign reserves and declining oil and gas revenues, leading to an expanding budget deficit [3]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, indicating a shift in policy to open gold access to the general public [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical precedents show that countries like Iceland, Greece, and Venezuela have resorted to selling gold during financial crises when external financing was blocked and internal liquidity was constrained [5]. - The current situation in Russia reflects a similar pattern where gold is being utilized not just as a store of wealth but as a means to sustain economic operations [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Strategy - Russia is primarily selling gold bars in the domestic market to avoid price volatility associated with international sales and to manage price expectations [7]. - The sale of gold is seen as a necessary measure to maintain economic stability, with the potential for further sales depending on the ongoing war and its financial implications [7]. Group 5: Future Implications - The continuation of the war will require significant funding, and post-war recovery will also necessitate cash flow for industrial revival and infrastructure repair [9]. - The choice to sell gold rather than print more currency aims to inject liquidity into the market while controlling inflationary pressures [9].