Palantir Technologies(US:PLTR) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-11-26 04:13Core Viewpoint - The current AI wave is not a bubble but a technological revolution similar to the early internet era, expected to drive global GDP growth to 7% to 8% over the next decade [1][8]. Group 1: AI Bubble Assessment - The market is not in a bubble as there is significant demand for AI products, with around 1 billion AI chatbot users, projected to grow to 4 to 5 billion by the end of the decade [2][3]. - The underlying tools for knowledge workers are expected to become ten times more powerful in the coming years, leading to a 50-fold increase in user capabilities [2]. - Current revenue for AI foundational model companies is approximately $30 billion, with a potential monetization scale of about $1.5 trillion [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current situation is compared to the 1995 internet moment, where significant growth potential existed before the market correction [3]. - Historical examples include the cost of sequencing a human genome, which was $2.7 billion and took 13 years, contrasting with today's technological readiness [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Growth Justification - Companies in exciting fields are expected to see their current premiums diminish significantly within five years due to overwhelming revenue growth and profit margin expansion [4]. - Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue growth reached 123%, exceeding aggressive expectations based on cost reduction and scaling [4]. - OpenAI is projected to reach an annualized revenue of approximately $20 billion by the end of this year, potentially growing to $40 to $50 billion next year, and $100 billion by 2027 [5]. Group 4: Major Opportunities in Technology - The largest opportunity lies in embodied AI, with projected revenues from Robotaxi services expected to grow from under $1 billion to $8 to $10 trillion in the next 5 to 10 years [6]. - The software stack's PaaS layer is expected to be as large as the foundational model layer, with companies like Palantir encroaching on SaaS players [6]. Group 5: Market Impact and Investment Strategy - Many non-AI companies are being penalized by the market for not accelerating revenue growth, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. - Companies with significant cash reserves are increasing capital expenditures, while those showing revenue growth are being rewarded [7]. - The transportation cost of autonomous trucks is expected to be lower than rail, potentially leading to stranded assets in traditional sectors [7]. Group 6: Future Growth Projections - The market is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of over 10% until the end of the decade, with disruptive innovations growing at rates of 50% [8]. - If the current technological revolution is accurate, actual GDP growth could accelerate to around 5% over the next 5 to 10 years, contributing to global GDP growth of 7% to 8% [8].