Juno markets：美联储理事呼吁加快降息，12月会议如何决策？

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran provide a dovish perspective on the current monetary policy path, advocating for a quicker pace of interest rate cuts to address labor market pressures and suggesting that current inflation data reflects a "structural illusion" that should not delay easing measures [1]. Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - Miran attributes the rise in the September unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4% directly to the overly tight current monetary policy [3]. - He emphasizes that without timely interest rate reductions, persistently high rates will suppress corporate investment and hiring intentions, leading to further weakening in the labor market [3]. - Miran advocates for a series of 50 basis point cuts to bring rates down to neutral levels to support employment recovery [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Miran identifies two main factors contributing to the current elevated inflation data: an imbalance in the housing market driving up rental prices and the lagging effects of previous rate hikes [3]. - He argues that these factors are temporary and do not indicate substantial inflationary pressure, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can pursue rate cuts more aggressively without fearing runaway inflation [3]. Group 3: Asset and Balance Sheet Management - In addition to interest rate policy, Miran recommends a conservative approach to balance sheet management, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury holdings to maintain liquidity while reducing long-term bond and MBS holdings [3]. - He highlights the housing market as a critical channel for monetary policy transmission, noting that rate cuts would help lower mortgage rates and alleviate pressure in the housing market [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with December's potential rate cut being a focal point for the market [4]. - Miran's views reinforce a dovish stance, pushing for larger and faster rate cuts in response to labor market weakness, although concerns from hawkish members about inflation rebound persist [4]. - The ultimate direction of policy will depend on the balance between employment and inflation considerations [4].